2K Erg Time Predictor
Predict your 2,000m Concept2 erg time from a longer test piece. Based on the widely-used rowing prediction formula.
Enter your split from a 5K, 6K, 10K, half marathon, or 30/60-minute erg test and this calculator predicts your 2K erg time. Uses Paul's Law with distance-calibrated exponents validated against Concept2 ranking data. Gives a predicted time plus optimistic/conservative range.
Best for: Rowers preparing for a 2K test who want to estimate their potential based on longer training pieces.
- ✓Accepts 5K, 6K, 10K, HM, 30min, and 60min results
- ✓Distance-calibrated exponents for accuracy
- ✓Shows predicted range (optimistic to conservative)
Limitations: Predictions assume similar training for 2K. Actual 2K performance also depends on anaerobic capacity and race execution.
Quick summary
- What it does:
- Predicts 2K erg time from a longer test distance
- Formula:
- Paul's Law with distance-calibrated exponents
- Input:
- 5K, 6K, 10K, HM, or 30/60-minute erg result
- Price:
- Free, no signup required
How 2K prediction works
Rowing performance across distances follows a predictable power curve. As distance increases, your sustainable pace drops because a larger fraction of energy must come from aerobic metabolism. This relationship is captured by Paul's Law:
T2K = Ttest × (2000 / Dtest)n
We use distance-dependent exponents calibrated against Concept2 ranking data: 1.06 for 5K/6K (strong correlation with 2K energy demands), 1.05 for 10K, and 1.04 for half marathon and longer pieces where aerobic capacity dominates and the anaerobic component needed for 2K is less predictable.
A likely range is shown using ±0.015 exponent variation to reflect individual differences in sprint vs endurance fitness. The prediction assumes a well-paced test piece at maximum effort. A poorly paced piece or one rowed at submaximal effort will reduce accuracy.
Want to know what training zones to target for your predicted 2K? Use our training zone calculator.
FAQ
Get AI-powered race predictions from your workouts
ErgManiac analyzes your training history to predict race times with more accuracy than a single-formula estimate. The more you train, the smarter the prediction gets.
Start Free Trial →